During the ASEAN Ministers and CEO Dialogues Session on 7 October 2015, in conjunction with the 33rd ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) presented the executive summary of its latest study on the ASEAN Energy Outlook. The study looks into the figures of supply and demand in the region up to the year 2035. This is the 4th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO4) and it aims to provide policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges that face the region up to 2035. In its development, the AEO4 actively involved all ASEAN Member States (AMS). The AEO4 will complement the implementation of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025 which was also endorsed by the 33rd AMEM.
Dr. Sanjayan Velautham, ACE’s Executive Director, mentioned that “this work entailed a cooperative approach involving all 10 ASEAN Member States who had developed the countries’ projections by sharing national policies. All national forecast models were based on, and evolved from national historical data on energy and socio-economic statistics. The final Outlook results are in line with the countries’ expectations on their future energy landscapes.”
The AEO4 considered 2 scenarios: (i) the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario which assumes that past developments will continue in the absence of significant modifications while still taking into consideration the future changes in activities that drive energy consumption, and (ii) the Advancing Policies (APS) scenario, which considers the successful implementation of stronger policies as defined by the AMS’ official targets for renewable energy (RE) and enhancing energy efficiency (EE). Through the 33rd Joint Ministerial Statement in Kuala Lumpur, the Ministers welcomed the key findings of the AEO4, which show that (i) ASEAN’s energy intensity would improve over the period of 2013-2035 as its energy demand is expected to increase by only 2.7 times while the GDP grows by 3.7 times, and (ii) coal is expected to take over from oil as the major energy source in ASEAN by 2025. For that reason, the Ministers emphasized the need for the implementation of cleaner coal technologies while continuing to tap the potentials of RE and EE.
“Despite the growth in fossil fuel, the ASEAN Member States have been showing their strong commitment to renewable energy”, said Maria-José Poddey, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)’s Principal Advisor of the Renewable Energy Support Programme for ASEAN (ASEAN-RESP). “Electricity generation from renewable energy and the share of renewable energies in the Total Primary Energy Supply will increase significantly up to 2025 and 2035,” she added.
Supported by GIZ through ASEAN-RESP, this work is a joint output of ACE, the 10 AMS’ national working groups under the Regional Energy Policy and Planning Sub-sector Network (REPP-SSN), and the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (FhG ISI) as expert consultant. The complete AEO4 publication would be available in December 2015. The AEO4 Executive Summary that was presented during the 33rd AMEM in Kuala Lumpur is available here.