Photo 1. Group session photo during the 9th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO9) Workshop III – Initial Result Findings.
On 10–12 March 2026 in Jakarta, Indonesia, the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) organised the “9th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO9) Workshop III – Initial Result Findings”. Supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth, & Development Office (FCDO) through the ASEAN-UK Green Transition Fund (GTF), the workshop marked an important milestone in the initial state on finalisation phase of AEO9.
Building on the kick-off meeting, previous technical workshops, and country visits, the workshop aimed to validate regional and country-level modelling results across the Baseline Scenario (BAS), AMS Targets Scenario (ATS), and Regional Aspiration Scenario (RAS), while strengthening ASEAN Member States (AMS)’ understanding of how national data and assumptions are applied in the modelling framework. The event brought together energy policy experts, modellers, data experts, statisticians, representatives of national utility companies, national statistics agencies, and relevant line ministries from across AMS. The workshop was conducted over three days, comprising two days of sessions with AMS representatives and one day dedicated to internal discussions.
Photo 2. Dato’ Ir. Ts. Razib Dawood, Executive Director of ACE (top) and Anna De Palma, ASEAN Climate and Environment Adviser of UK Mission to ASEAN (bottom), delivering the opening remarks.
The workshop commenced with opening remarks from Dato’ Ir. Ts. Razib Dawood, Executive Director of ACE, and Anna De Palma, ASEAN Climate and Environment Adviser at the UK Mission to ASEAN. Their remarks officially opened the workshop and set the tone for two days of technical discussion on AEO9’s initial findings. The opening session underscored the importance of close collaboration between ACE, AMS, and development partners in advancing a credible, policy-relevant, and regionally aligned ASEAN Energy Outlook that will support evidence-based policymaking and subsequent consultation with the relevant ASEAN sectoral bodies.
Photo 3. Muhammad Rizki Kresnawan (left) and Silvira Ayu Rosalia (right) of ACE, presenting the AEO9 Progress Update session.
Following the opening session, Muhammad Rizki Kresnawan, Senior Energy Modeller of the Energy Modelling and Policy Planning (MPP) Department at ACE, together with Silvira Ayu Rosalia, Energy Statistician of MPP at ACE, delivered the AEO9 Progress Update.
The session provided updates on the development timeline and overall progress of AEO9, noting that the Outlook has now moved into its finalisation phase. The presenters highlighted that country visits conducted since January 2026 had helped validate national energy data and modelling inputs, capture country-level policy updates, identify data gaps, and clarify follow-up actions. The discussion also emphasises that stronger coordination between energy authorities and national statistical institutions remains essential to improve the coverage and timeliness of energy statistics.
Photo 4. Lazuwardi Imani (right) and Fadel Maulana (left) of ACE, presenting BAS on the demand side.
The workshop then moved to the Results Presentation of the BAS on the demand side, presented by Fadel Maulana, Data Officer of MPP at ACE, and Lazuwardi Imani, Energy Modeller of MPP at ACE. The session outlined the detailed assumptions and parameters underpinning the baseline demand-side modelling and presented the initial results across industry, transport, residential, and commercial sectors.
ACE explained that the modelling follows a hierarchy of data sources, prioritising official AMS data, followed by derived official references and external data where needed. The presentation highlighted that, under the BAS, industry remains dominated by direct process heating, gasoline continues to be the dominant fuel in most transport modes, cooking accounts for more than half of total fine energy demand in the residential sector, and air conditioning together with lighting accounts for the bulk of commercial energy demand.
Photo 5. Silvira Ayu Rosalia (left) and Muhammad Ilham Rizaldi (right) of ACE, presenting the ATS on the demand side.
Continuing the demand-side discussions, Silvira and Muhammad Ilham Rizaldi, Energy Modeller of MPP at ACE, presented the ATS on the demand side. The session introduced the scenario’s assumptions and parameters and explained how national policies and targets are translated into model variables, including industrial energy saving targets and fuel-switching measures.
The discussion with AMS focused on how transport electrification is represented within the model, how policy implementation uncertainties may affect scenario outcomes, and how technologies such as cooling interventions, EVs, hydrogen, and CCUS might be reflected as the modelling continues to evolve.
Photo 6. Yudiandra Yuwono of ACE, presenting the Scenarios Comparison on the demand side.
The first day’s demand-side discussions were synthesised through the Scenarios Comparison session, presented by Yudiandra Yuwono, Senior Energy Modeller of MPP at ACE. Comparing BAS and ATS outcomes on the demand side, the session highlighted the policy implementation gap between current trajectories and target-driven pathways. Discussions drew attention to the growing importance of cooling demand, the need to pair efficiency regulations with affordability measures, and the potential mismatch between increasing electrification and existing supply-side constraints if charging and other enabling regulations are not yet in place. The session also underscored that, while many AMS already have policy ambitions, further assistance may be required to translate those ambitions into effective implementation pathways.
Photo 7. Dr Ambiyah Abdullah of ACE, presenting the ASEAN Energy Investment (AEI) 2025 Dissemination session.
The final substantive session of the first day featured presentation delivered by Dr Ambiyah Abdullah, Senior Researcher of MPP at ACE, which introduced two 2025 publications: ASEAN Capacity Building Roadmap on Energy Investment and ASEAN Energy Investment 2025. The session highlighted legal and regulatory risk, alongside investor risk, as major concerns affecting project bankability.
Through a focus group discussion with participants, the session explored the availability and use of de-risking instruments across AMS, including green sukuk, guarantees, and first-loss capital. Participants also discussed barriers such as high capital expenditure, technological uncertainty, policy inconsistency, and limited technical capacity, while identifying standardised regulation, capacity building, knowledge sharing, and greater data transparency as important areas for regional cooperation.
Photo 8. Dr Zulfikar Yurnaidi of ACE, delivering the closing remarks and outlining the way forward for the second day.
Concluding the first day, Dr Zulfikar Yurnaidi, Head of the MPP Department at ACE, delivered the closing remarks and outlined the way forward for the second day. This segment drew the day’s demand-side discussions to a close and provided a bridge towards the next day’s focus on supply-side modelling, integrated regional energy systems, and the development of the RAS.
Photo 9. Muhammad Rizki Kresnawan of ACE, delivering the recap of the first day and the overview of the second day’s agenda.
The second day began with a recap of the first day’s discussions and an overview of the Day 2 agenda, delivered by Muhammad Rizki Kresnawan, Senior Energy Modeller of MPP at ACE. This opening segment refreshed participants’ understanding of the key points raised previously and prepared the workshop for deeper engagement on supply-side results, regional energy integration, and longer-term scenario development under AEO9.
Photo 10. Lisa Sachs, Director of the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment (CCSI), presenting on ASEAN’s Regional Integrated Energy System.
Lisa Sachs, Director of the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment (CCSI) delivered presentation on ASEAN’s Regional Integrated Energy. Her presentation introduced the concept of a regionally integrated ASEAN energy system and highlighted its relevance to the region’s long-term energy security, decarbonisation, and economic development. The discussion noted that, while integrated regional systems have been widely explored, implementation still requires stronger policy planning, broader institutional support, and closer engagement among stakeholders across AMS. The session therefore provided an important strategic perspective on how deeper regional integration could support ASEAN’s collective long-term energy vision.
Photo 11. Yudiandra Yuwono of ACE (top) and Jason Veysey of SEI (bottom), presenting the Road to the RAS session.
This was followed by the Road to RAS session, delivered by Jason Veysey, Energy Modeling Program Director at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) US, together with Yudiandra The session explained the purpose of RAS and how it complements the BAS and ATS pathways, while also introducing the proposed ambition level, modelling scope, and key regional levers. The discussion highlighted that the optimised scenario is expected to cover energy supply, selected demand-side sectors, trade, expanded ASEAN Power Grid interconnections, and region-wide optimisation.
Photo 12. Lazuwardi Imani of ACE and Afham Kilmi of ACE (top) presenting BAS on the supply side.
The workshop then proceeded to the Results Presentation of the BAS on the supply side, delivered by Afham Kilmi, Research Analyst of MPP at ACE, and Lazuwardi. The session presented the latest available supply-side datasets from AMS, the standardised supply data structures being developed for AEO9, and the initial baseline results for energy supply and power generation. The discussion showed that coal and gas remain dominant in the baseline, and that the BAS follows historical trajectories rather than coal phase-out assumptions.
Participants also discussed issues such as the unit standardisation of reporting, the projected fuel mix to 2060, and the extent to which the baseline aligns with regional commitments, with ACE clarifying that the BAS is not intended to reflect NDC-aligned ambition but rather the continuation of historical trends.
Photo 13. Silvira Ayu Rosalia and Muhammad Ilham Rizaldi of ACE (left), presenting the ATS on the supply side.
In the afternoon, Silvira Ilham , delivered the Results Presentation of the ATS on the supply side. The session presented the assumptions, parameters, and early findings for the supply-side pathway under AMS targets. Discussions focused on how demand projections drive capacity requirements, how historical load profiles influence modelling outputs, and how renewable generation, electrification, and battery deployment might shape future power generation. The session also highlighted that battery storage is expected to become more active under the RAS rather than the ATS at this stage, and that further assumptions on EV load profiles and dispatch behaviour will be necessary to refine the modelling.
Photo 14. Dr Zulfikar Yurnaidi of ACE presenting the summary and next steps for AEO9.
Towards the conclusion of the workshop, Dr Zulfikar Yurnaidi delivered the summary and next steps for AEO9. He emphasised that AEO9 is a joint publication of ACE and AMS, and that the contributions of AMS representatives would be duly acknowledged. He also encouraged participants to continue flagging discrepancies and submitting quality inputs as the modelling is further refined ahead of the planned launch at the 44th ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting in the Philippines in September 2026. The session reaffirmed that continued technical engagement, validation, and follow-up discussions will remain essential to ensuring that AEO9 is robust, consistent, and policy-relevant.
Photo 15. Workshop participants during the office visit to the ASEAN Centre for Energy Headquarters.
Second day of the workshop concluded with an office visit to the ACE Headquarters. This provided a closing opportunity for participants to continue their engagement following two days of intensive technical discussions. It also reflected the collaborative spirit underpinning the development of AEO9 and the continued partnership among ACE, AMS, and supporting organisations in advancing regional energy policy and planning.
Photo 15. Muhammad Rizki Kresnawan (left) and Yudiandra Yuwono (right), Senior Energy Modellers at ACE, leading the internal FGD Session.
On the third day, the event continued with ACE’ internal Focus Group Discussion (FGD) to further consolidate the workshop outcomes and strengthen alignment on the development of AEO9. Led by Rizki and Yudiandra ,, the discussion revisited the three scenarios under AEO9, the proposed structure of the report, the three-phase project timeline, the five primary data streams used in the modelling, lessons learnt from the country visits, and the analytical enhancements introduced in AEO9 compared with AEO8. The session concluded with a clear way forward, including the integration of feedback from ASEAN Member States, a continued call for updated and detailed data submissions, further refinement of modelling results over the coming months, and follow-up consultations through relevant Sub-Sector Network (SSN) meetings.
Overall, the three-day workshop combined detailed technical validation, strategic discussion on regional integration, and internal consolidation to strengthen the evidence base for AEO9. Insights and feedback gathered across the sessions will be incorporated to further refine assumptions and results, ensuring consistency and policy relevance across all scenarios. ACE will continue to work closely with AMS and partners in the lead-up to the publication’s finalisation and planned launch at the 44th ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting in September 2026.
