This article is also published on the Jakarta Post.
As global aviation faces mounting pressure to cut emissions, ASEAN has a chance to position itself at the
forefront of a cleaner aviation future. Aviation remains a challenging sector
to decarbonise, accounting for 2.5% of global energy-related carbon dioxide
emissions in 2023 and projected to grow rapidly. Unlike power generation and
most other transport sectors, aviation remains heavily dependent on liquid
fuels due to battery limitations.
With air traffic in Southeast Asia continuing to
grow and emission policies beginning to tighten in the coming years,
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) offers the most scalable near-term tool to reduce emissions and improve energy
security. Backed by abundant regional resources, ASEAN has an opportunity to
position itself as an important SAF hub, delivering significant economic and
climate benefits for the region. The opportunity is significant, but capturing
it will depend on how quickly ASEAN can turn regional potential into credible,
scalable, and internationally recognised SAF supply.
Why SAF matters for ASEAN now more than ever
The growing urgency around SAF is closely tied
to global efforts to make aviation cleaner and more sustainable. In response, countries globally have agreed to
reduce emissions from international flights under the framework of the Carbon
Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Starting 2027, the rules will apply more widely across
international routes, although some
countries and routes will remain exempt based on factors like aviation activity
levels.
Several ASEAN countries, as ICAO Member States
participating in CORSIA, have started accelerating national measures to promote
SAF adoption in airlines’ fuel blend. In ASEAN, demand for SAF is projected to reach 15,000 barrels per day in 2030 to over
700,000 in 2050—with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore as the largest markets.
This growing demand is also reflected in the policies and roadmaps targeting
SAF blending in the near future.
Singapore, as one of the
region’s key air hubs, is requiring departing flights to use SAF, starting at
1% blend this year to 3-5% by 2030. Indonesia is also joining the SAF push, targeting an 1%
initial blend in 2027 and a long-term goal of achieving 50% blend by 2060.
Additionally, Malaysia is targeting up to 47% SAF blending mandate by 2050 and aims to achieve net zero in the industry by 2050.
ASEAN’s
emerging SAF opportunity
ASEAN is also
beginning to build the production and commercial foundations needed to respond
to this demand. Indonesia’s Pertamina has developed the SAF with 2.4% blending, one of the region’s early SAF products, while
its subsidiary has obtained the International
Sustainability and Carbon Certification aligned with CORSIA. In Malaysia, Petronas signed an agreement with the
Malaysian Aviation Group in 2023 to supply over 230,000 tonnes of SAF from
2027. Singapore and Thailand are also among the region’s first movers in
commercial production: Singapore’s facility has an annual capacity of 1 million
tonnes, while Thailand’s plant currently produces 6 million litres annually,
with plans to scale up to 24 million litres. These early developments show that
ASEAN is beginning to build a tangible SAF industry and not merely treating SAF
as a future option.
ASEAN’s wider
opportunity lies in its diverse feedstock base. A recent regional techno-economic assessment highlights strong potential to produce SAF from
agricultural, forestry, and waste feedstocks across the region, including used
cooking oil, cassava, rice, corn, coconut, palm fruit, and forestry
by-products. The potential SAF supply from these feedstocks can reach up to 8.5 million barrels per day by 2050. Combined with emerging
refinery capacity, aviation demand centres, and trading hubs, ASEAN has a
significant opportunity to become a leading SAF producer and supplier in the
global market.
From potential
to a credible regional SAF value chain
Realising this
opportunity will require more than increasing supply: ASEAN must also
strengthen the credibility and scalability of its SAF production. A key
starting point is strengthening the data and methodology basis for lifecycle
emissions accounting in line with internationally recognised frameworks. Under
CORSIA, SAF’s emissions value depends on how lifecycle emissions are
calculated, including
feedstock type, production pathway, land-use impacts, and supply-chain
emissions. Feedstock classification also matters, as treating feedstock as a
waste, residue, by-product, or co-product can affect its assessed carbon
intensity and competitiveness. Thailand illustrates this challenge: it is exploring a
country-specific emissions factor for molasses-based alcohol-to-jet SAF because
molasses is treated as a co-product under the default factor, while nationally
it is considered a by-product of sugar production.
ASEAN also
needs a clearer technology roadmap for long-term SAF production. The current SAF development is largely centred on used cooking oil and the
commercially mature HEFA pathway, which alone cannot provide sufficient volumes
for future demand. ASEAN should therefore identify scalable pathways for its
wider agricultural and forestry residues, including alcohol-to-jet,
Fischer-Tropsch, and hydrothermal liquefaction. A regional roadmap can guide
investment and policy support towards technologies that are sustainable,
scalable, and increasingly cost-competitive.
Robust policy planning will also be essential to turn SAF ambitions into bankable supply. National frameworks need to provide clearer demand signals, support certification and lifecycle emissions accounting, and enable investment in feedstock supply chains, conversion facilities, and infrastructure. At the regional level, platforms such as the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation and the ASEAN Sustainable Aviation Action Plan can help connect national efforts by identifying readiness gaps and complementary strengths, aligning sustainability and carbon accounting approaches, and exploring cross-border feedstock and SAF trade. By linking feedstock-rich economies with refining capacity and aviation demand centres, ASEAN can turn its distributed strengths into a credible and competitive SAF value chain.
Cover image source: Freepik
