Summary
The ASEAN Renewable Energy Long-Term Roadmap (RE LTRM) serves as a strategic blueprint to transform the region’s energy transition vision into concrete action. It directly supports the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 by aligning the energy transition with long-term economic competitiveness and sustainable growth. The roadmap provides a science-based conceptual framework to guide the upcoming ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2026-2030, offering clear, evidence-based analysis of the policy choices needed to secure a resilient and prosperous energy future for the region. Building on the 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO8), this roadmap sharpens the focus for decision-makers by defining and analysing three distinct pathways. These scenarios chart an actionable course from the ASEAN Policy-Aligned Scenario (APAS), which reflects current national commitments, through the ASEAN Renewable Electricity Coupling (AREC) Scenario, which models a coordinated power sector transition, to the ASEAN Shared Energy Resources (ASER) Scenario, which represents a deeply integrated, market-driven, and economy-wide transformation.
The analysis reveals a two-stage transition. The next decade will be driven by a rapid increase in renewable capacity in the power sector, led by strong national plans. A critical tipping point is projected to occur around 2030, where total renewable capacity will surpass that of all fossil fuels combined. This marks the beginning of a long-term structural shift where coal and oil decline, while natural gas peaks in the medium term before ceding its flexibility role to clean alternatives. However, the analysis shows that this momentum flattens post-2035, requiring a strategic shift to advanced regional policies to master deep system integration. A profound finding is that a high-vRE grid is a non-negotiable future. Across all scenarios, the share of generation from variable renewables (vRE) converges at a very high level of 42-47% by 2045, indicating that the entire region must urgently invest in grid transformation and flexibility. This challenge will require tailored national strategies, as vRE leaders like Viet Nam will face the advanced challenges of a 60-70% vRE share, while other Member States will focus on managing daily energy surpluses or building foundational grid infrastructure. Ultimately, the roadmap demonstrates that while a power-sector-only approach (AREC) is essential, it is insufficient to achieve absolute emissions reduction, as regional emissions are shown to plateau and rise again post-2035.
Only the deep, multi-sector, market-driven policies of the ASER pathway—which address the core decarbonisation challenges in the industry and transport sectors—can successfully bend the region's emissions curve downwards. Encouragingly, the analysis shows this ambitious pathway is an achievable future, built upon the strong national ambitions of regional leaders. To achieve this deeper integration, the roadmap identifies two critical cooperation mechanisms. The ASEAN Power Grid (APG) is essential for a capital-efficient transition, highlighting an urgent need for continuous expansion. Secondly, intra-regional biofuel trade is vital for energy security, with the potential to increase regional bioethanol capacity by more than three times by 2045, reducing import dependency and strengthening ASEAN’s collective resilience.